Sanitation Pays Off - BIG TIME for Development in Asia

Globally, the sanitation Millennium Development Goal target is well off track. 

However, many countries in Southeast Asia have made substantial progress, although a number of them will not reach the sanitation MDG target by 2015.

 Many countries have recently revised their sanitation strategies in order to rapidly scale up sanitation and aim for universal access by 2030.

According to a new study from the Water Global Practices Water and Sanitation Program (WSP), sanitation has been shown to have significant economic and social returns in the six countries studied (Cambodia, Yunnan province of China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, and Vietnam) and benefits in both urban and rural settings exceed costs in almost all cases. 

The Economic Assessment of Sanitation Interventions in Southeast Asia found that all sanitation interventions examined have benefits that exceed costs, when compared with “no sanitation facility.” Economic benefits of sanitation are at least five times higher than economic costs in rural areas and at least three times higher for urban areas. 

Other key findings include:

- In rural areas, the most basic sanitation type, the pit latrine, had returns of at least five times its costs in all but one country, Cambodia. Across both wet and dry pit latrines, the returns are highest in Lao PDR at over eight times.

- In urban areas, pit latrines remain a feasible, affordable, and efficient sanitation option in some settings where density is low. Septic tanks were also found to be economically viable in all countries, with economic returns of around two or more per unit spent.

In all countries and for most sanitation technologies, health benefits and time savings accounted for the majority of the overall benefits. 

Some intangible benefits not quantifiable  from the above estimates were also shown to be important to households, including dignity, comfort, prestige, security, gender equality, household cleanliness, and aesthetics of the community environment. Because of inter-personal variation in responses, it was difficult to present population level averages for these intangible benefits. 

The benefits of reduced water pollution from improved fecal sludge or sewage management were not fully counted for those interventions that reduced release of fecal matter into the environment because of the methodological difficulties and data constraints involved in such valuations.

The report, which is part of the second phase of the Economics of Sanitation Initiative (ESI) launched initially in East Asia in 2007, provides sanitation decision makers with compelling evidence that directly compares the costs and benefits of alternative sanitation options across multiple contexts and countries.

Read the blog from Guy Hutton: "Why choosing the preferred sanitation solution should be more like grocery shopping."

For more information, please visit www.wsp.org

The Coming Asian Century - Where to Australia?

A lot of words have hit the press about Australia's role in the so called coming Asian Century.  Be it supply of minerals, or possibly food, it has been painted as a rosy time coming for Australia.

A more sober assessment is now being seen as closer to the real situation.

This is attached below.

It posits a reduction in the role of mineral exports with some thoughts being developed around "what else can be done?"  Some think an expanded role for agriculture and livestock - maybe, others think we need to focus on redeveloping older infrastructure.

Would it see a more gradual move to develop the north of Australia?  That has not been a focus so far.  What ever, the news article does provide some sober thinking from some reasonably knowledgeable people, and also looks at a few social issues, rather than just location and economics.

But it does not seem to look at a greater role for the north of Australia, which seems odd to those living in the north of the country, especially today when Conoco was inferring a very large upgrade to gas processing facilities in Darwin with a very long pipleine from WA [ yes - not committed, but a definite idea float!]
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The 'Asian Century' may not be that good

WE'VE heard so much about the potential for Australia to benefit from "the Asian century" that it seemed right that two eminent Asian economists opened Wednesday's official conference on the Asian white paper with a warning: it might not be that good.

Malaysian-born, Melbourne-trained economist Jayant Menon, now with the Asian Development Bank, said that if all went well, Asia by 2050 could have living standards similar to those of Europe today. But it is also possible that countries such as China, India and Indonesia could reach middle-income levels, then lose momentum, as Malaysia and Thailand have.

Asia too has challenges to overcome, Dr Menon reminded us. It has been very successful in its "catch up" phase of growth, but to reach Western levels, Asian countries will need to spread the benefits to all their people, become innovators at the frontiers of technology and science, develop lower emission technologies, attractive cities, and deep financial markets — and in China, among others, cope with a fast-shrinking labour force.

Professor He Fan, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was similarly frank about China's future challenges, which include a fast-shrinking labour force, due to its one-child policy. China's workforce will peak next year, he said, then start shrinking — putting a serious brake on growth.

And while Australia could expand its exports to China to high-value agricultural produce, manufactured goods and services, he noted, they will have to compete there with manufactures and services from all over the world — and proximity will not be the big advantage it has been for exports of bulk minerals.

Professor Anne Krueger, former deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund, was also wary of assuming that Asia is set to continue its stellar growth path. She backed Dr Menon's warnings, saying Asian countries will face slower growth as they approach convergence with the West and in China and Korea, workforce growth reverses, and fewer workers have to support many more retirees.

The Gillard government appointed former Treasury secretary Ken Henry to head a taskforce to prepare a white paper (policy statement) on how Australia could best position itself to benefit from what it calls "the Asian century". Julia Gillard and Treasurer Wayne Swan constantly beguile us with images of Australian schools, health care professionals, farmers and niche manufacturers finding new markets among Asia's rapidly-growing middle class consumers.

At the seminar, hosted jointly by Treasury, the Reserve Bank and the International Monetary Fund, no one disputed the central thesis that Australia's future lies in developing closer ties with Asia. But there was a clear gulf between the optimism of officials' confidence that Asia will sustain high commodity prices for a decade or more, and the estimate of Victoria University professors Peter Sheehan and Bob Gregory that within a year or two, mining investment will start falling, and detracting from our growth rather than sustaining it.

Both the officials and the outsiders agreed that what we call the resources boom really has three distinct phases. To summarise Professor Gregory's version:

  Phase 1: rising commodity prices. Between 2003 and 2011, the world decided to roughly double what it paid for our minerals. That added about 10 per cent to Australian incomes, and drove up the Australian dollar, making our imports cheaper. But that phase ended a year ago. Our minerals prices have fallen since, and could fall a lot more ahead.

  Phase 2: rising mining investment. That began in 2003, and is still building to its climax, now expected to be in 2013 or 2014. Mining investment is now running at 10 times the levels of a decade ago. In the last year, in constant prices, it grew by $33 billion while the whole of GDP itself grew just $45 billion. It dominates the economy, but soon it will be shrinking, and we will need to find new drivers of growth.

  Phase 3: rising mining exports. You might think that has happened already, but not that much. In the past decade, the volume of mining exports has grown just 3.9 per cent a year, not much faster than GDP. The next five years will see much more spectacular growth: Sheehan and Gregory estimate that it could add $100 billion a year to our GDP.

But on their scenario, that would be offset by a similar fall in the value of mining investment, as Phase 2 goes into reverse. And Sheehan and Gregory point out that there's virtually no jobs in mining — the vast Pluto LNG project will employ just 600 people, once it is up and running — and many of them are 100 per cent owned.

"An extreme example of these trends is the Shell Prelude project, which is a $15 billion wholly foreign-owned LNG project situated in waters offshore in Western Australia", their paper notes.

"Shell is constructing in Korea a massive platform which will be towed to the offshore site, and from which all drilling, liquefaction and shipping activities will take place. None of the gas will be piped to the Australian mainland. The domestic impact is likely to be minimal, other than through the tax paid."

They want the Federal government and the states to combine to create a new growth driver for Australia by setting a joint, semi-independent infrastructure authority, which could borrow under Federal government guarantee, and invest heavily in tackling Australia's infrastructure backlog, which has been estimated at $700 billion.

Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson was not impressed. He suggested that the private sector will provide the growth engine, and if the states need more money for infrastructure, they should stop exempting small business from payroll tax, and cut back their other tax concessions.

Presumably Parkinson is giving similar advice to Swan about the Federal government's own tax concessions, which Treasury last totted up at a cool $112 billion a year. There's enough money there to finance any number of initiatives to keep the economy ticking on.

http://qcl.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/finance/the-asian-century-may-not-be-that-good/2624762.aspx?storypage=0

the second part originally written by TIM COLEBATCH, THE AGE 20 Sep, 2012 08:00 AM and acknowledged.

Climate Change May Boost Agriculture in SE Asia

 

Climate change 'may boost South-East Asian agriculture'

Prime Sarmiento

Increased rainfall and temperature due to climate change could bring benefits to South-East Asian agriculture, a study suggests, contradicting more common expectations that a warmer planet will reduce agricultural productivity in the region.

Scientists from the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) have predicted that precipitation levels in vast areas of South-East Asia will remain stable, and most of the anticipated changes will occur over the sea, rather than over land.

In southern Vietnam and Cambodia, for instance, precipitation changes will be so minimal that farm production will barely be affected. In central and northern Myanmar, the increase will in fact help to raise crop output, as these are the driest areas in the region.
A
n increase in temperature may also increase crop yield in northern parts of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar, since crops such as rice and vegetables rely on regular rainfall and are most vulnerable to variability in weather. "At the regional scale, precipitation and temperature changes should benefit agricultural production, as significant precipitation increases will occur in the drier areas, whereas the steepest temperature rises will affect the coldest parts," says the study.

The study was carried out by IWMI scientists Guillaume Lacombe, Chu Thai Hoanh and Vladimir Smakhtin.  Lacombe, the study’s lead author, told SciDev.Net that the findings will help the region's policymakers plan for food security — which is being threatened by climate change.
"This study helps characterise and quantify climate change," said Lacombe. "It could help [in sustaining] food security by showing where most drastic changes in rainfall patterns over the long term will occur. This should help the prioritisation of areas of intervention for climate change adaptation."

Lacombe said he and fellow hydrologists drew this conclusion through using PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), a regional climate modelling system designed to run on a Linux-based (an open source operating system) computer and to give detailed climate change projections in any region.

Despite optimistic results, Lacombe pointed out that climate change will have other impacts, such as rises in sea level, which could make the Mekong Delta in southwestern Vietnam more saline, leading to the destruction of rice farms. Climate change could also increase pest numbers and disease prevalence.

Lacombe said that policymakers in the region needed to consider climate projections obtained using several other climate models — in addition to the PRECIS model — before making any decisions about an appropriate response. He also stressed that PRECIS is a regional model and not a global model.

The study concludes with a call for further studies to focus on how climate trends might interact with other environmental changes caused by the region's demographic and economic developments.
Link to article

Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0359-3 (2012)

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Everyone seems to believe that climate change will result in less rainfall.  This recent article seems to allay those fears for much of SE Asia. Work related to north Australia also seems to point in this same trend.

Sea level rise is still a serious issue in Asia as well as north Australia, so outcomes are not just that simple.

But it is relevant to at least see some outcomes more focused on our region.