Showing posts with label asian monsoon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label asian monsoon. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Generosity Counts

Generosity: It Doesn’t Cost a Penny to Pay It Forward





                               
When we hear the words “giving” and “generosity” we typically think in terms of financial donations. Yet, we have far more to offer than money. For example, we can give people access to our personal network, or leverage our influence to help someone else gain an opportunity they wouldn’t otherwise have.

In 1792, on a chilly December day in Salzburg, Austria, an unmarried embroiderer gave birth to her third child, a baby boy named Joseph Mohr. The child’s father had deserted the mother immediately upon learning about the pregnancy. The abandoned mother, already short on money, was fined a year’s worth of wages for having conceived a child out of wedlock.

With an absentee father and an impoverished mother, Joseph’s life prospects were dim. This was especially true in the late 18th century, when so-called “illegitimate children” were socially stigmatized. They were routinely denied apprenticeships and educational opportunities.

One place where Joseph felt accepted was at his local church, where he sang in the choir. The cathedral’s vicar, Johan Nepomuk Hiernle, took notice of the boy’s musical talent, and intervened on Joseph’s behalf so that he could receive an education. Joseph did well in school, and he excelled musically, learning to play the guitar, violin, and organ. Eventually, he decided to enroll in seminary.

Joseph’s plans were blocked, however, as his illegitimate birth prevented him from studying for the priesthood. Hiernle again came to his aid, successfully seeking an exemption so that the young man could attend seminary. After completing his studies, Joseph was ordained, and then appointed as priest of a small parish in Oberndorf.

His second year at the church, Joseph scrambled to pull together a concert for Christmas mass. He had written a poem and shared it with a friend whom he asked to compose a melody to go with it.

Joseph’s friend obliged, and together they performed the song for the congregation on Christmas Eve. The tune, “Silent Night,” has gone on to become a holiday favorite, popular with churches and carolers almost 200 years later.
Thought to Ponder
If not for a kind-hearted vicar, who generously used his connections to aid a fatherless, underprivileged young boy, “Silent Night” would likely never have been written or sung. In fact, who knows what would have become of Joseph Mohr without the vicar’s support and guidance?

At some point, I’ll bet someone has generously intervened in your life in order to give you a better shot at success. As a way of honoring this person, take a brief moment to comment on the impact their generosity had on you. How might you be able to “pay forward” their generosity?

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I obviously did not write this, but the thoughts are too pertinent to ignore.  I was especially touched in 2013 by the Typhoon Haiyan [ Yolanda] in the Philippines, as I have been through several cyclone events including one similar in intensity to this one.

Truly some thoughtful ideas at this time of Christmas and New Year.  And free!

All the best to readers for Christmas and New Year of 2014. Be generous - however you can.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Asian Monsoon May be Predictable - Early

A lot has been done to advance the predictions about the NW monsoon across Australia.  BUT - this year it seems to be definitely off - but forcasters did indicate that there were no strong signals, so that makes for tricky predicting.

Of more importance has been the machinations of the Asian monsoon which has enormous influences on the agriculture and urban life in the region.  For example, the recent flooding in Jakarta, and seasonal typhoons in the area.

The correlations are not fantastic - with 65% indicated, but refinements are certainly possible.

The news article is worth reproducing  - and for the interested read the full report.  AND -watch out out for more.


Asian Monsoon Predictions Take Great Leap Forward

There are few other weather phenomenon which effect a country's agriculture, economy, and people greater than the Monsoon. The monsoon is defined as a seasonal reversing of wind accompanied by a significant change in precipitation. For many parts of the world, and particularly south Asia, the monsoon provides much needed rainfall. However, the amount of rainfall and number of tropical storms brought about by each year's monsoon has been extremely difficult to predict. Scientists from the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa have made a breakthrough for predicting the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia as early as the spring of that year.

The East Asian monsoon affects parts of Indo-China, Philippines, China, Korea, and Japan. The researchers found that this monsoon and its related storm activity are controlled by fluctuations in the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), a major circulation system centered over the Philippine Sea.

If the WPSH is strong during the summer, the rainfall tends to be above average in East Asia and there tend to be fewer tropical storms that make landfall.

Using computer modeling, they found out that summer fluctuations in the WPSH are over 65% predictable by the spring. Things that make the WPSH stronger than usual include dipolar sea surface temperature anomalies in the ocean. This happens when unusually warm Indian Ocean hits the unusually cool western North Pacific water. If this occurs, there will be greater summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia and the Ganges Valley in India.

"Our findings create a promising way for predicting monsoon rainfall and tropical storm days during the East Asian summer," concludes lead author Bin Wang, meteorology professor at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and faculty at the International Pacific Research Center. "As a first step, we use global general circulation models to predict the fluctuations in the WPSH, and then in a second step, we use this forecast to predict rainfall and storm days in regional analyses. We have done hindcasts from 1979 to 2009 using this approach and have found substantially improved skills over the use of dynamical climate models in predicting the East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and tropical storm activity."

This study has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

[ reproduced from ENN, 25 Jan 2013]