Sulfate Boosts Ability of Plants to Handle Dry Conditions

Plants absorb the mineral sulfate from soil water. An international research team led by scientists from Heidelberg University has uncovered how sulfate controls the production of the drought stress hormone ABA in plants and thus contributes to their drought-resistance. These findings improve scientists' understanding of how the drought-stress signal travels from the roots to the leaves. The studies in Heidelberg were carried out at the Centre for Organismal Studies (COS).

Plants take in carbon dioxide for photosynthesis through pores in their leaves. When rainfall is low, however, these openings spell disaster for the plants because strong sunlight and active photosynthesis draw a lot of water through the open pores. Without fresh water from the roots, the plants wither and ultimately die. The hormone ABA [abscisic acid] controls how far the pores open in order to regulate the water loss of the plant.

Last year the researchers uncovered that the nutrient sulfate accumulates in the water transport pathways of the plants when the soil begins to dry out. Now the team led by Dr Markus Wirtz and Prof. Dr Rüdiger Hell has shown that the mineral actually known as sulfate plays a critical signalling role in supplying water to the plant. “Even we were surprised how efficiently sulfate triggers the synthesis of ABA and thus controls closure of the pores,” states Prof. Hell.

“The extremely dry European summer of 2018 was a preview of the imminent effects of global warming on the growth of plants and nutrient production,” stresses Dr Wirtz. “To be able to cultivate food crops that are more resilient during periods of water scarcity and drought, we need to understand how environmental factors regulate the formation of the hormone ABA”.

The results of the study were published in the journals “The Plant Cell” and “Plant Physiology” in late 2018.

The implications for turf could be most intriguing too and if your also add in the known effects of potassium on cell wall strengthening under dry conditions, could this explain or partially suggest an improved role for use of potassium sulfate as a summer fertiliser, or use of more complex mixes including slow release nitrogen?

Potassium sulfate is an often favoured means of supplying potassium and considered much superior to some alternate and cheaper forms, but is the real benefit the potassium or the sulfate in boosting drought resilience in many summer growing warm season turf grasses, especially in water deficit and /or hot stress conditions?  Do similar issues arise if using potassium sulfate in hydroponics in hot conditions [ it is commonly used in hydroponic cultivation] ?

It is an intriguing outcome of the research.......with no doubt more to come.

[ some material used from a press release by COS]

Queensland and North Australia Rainfall Variability

Queensland experiences some of the highest rainfall variability in the world. The chart below shows an analysis of the historical rainfall records from 1889–2017 and reveals 9 sequences of wet and dry periods, each lasting from 5 to 13 years. Our variable climate, especially long periods of drought, is one of the biggest challenges when running a successful grazing property in north Australia.

The maps also indicate graphically the situation for north Australia and includes the Northern Territory.

The maps are easier to see if downloaded separately from the original website.

Queensland has had a recent extended period of low rainfall [ see reddish and brown areas], while north and northwest Australia has been wetter than normal [blue and green areas].

There are some indications that at least for Queensland it might be getting wetter. 

Queensland's Extended Wet/Dry Periods (1889-2017) (PDF, 2.1M, last updated 01:48PM, 21 June 2017)*

The Drought and Climate Adaptation Program (DCAP) is an initiative to improve drought preparedness and resilience for Queensland producers. The program aims to do this by delivering a range of research, development and extension projects.

The Queensland Drought Mitigation Centre is a collaboration of national and international climate modelling expertise and has been established to facilitate the research, development and extension projects under the DCAP program. The Centre is a collaboration between the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries (DAF), Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation (DSITI) and the University of Southern Queensland (USQ).  It has a Queensland focus, but data tends to cover north Australia more generally.

Drought and Climate Adaptation Program

The research projects include:

• Managing for climate variability and improving drought preparedness in Queensland grazing enterprises: Rural specialists' perspectives and suggestions
• Quantifying and communicating risks associated with multi-year drought in Queensland
• Customised Pasture Alerts by email
• Redevelopment of the LongPaddock website
• Necessary climate change projections data for quantitative agricultural risk management
• Communicating climate change impacts on Queensland’s agricultural sectors
• Learning from the past – incorporating palaeoclimate data into water security planning and decision-making
• Improving seasonal forecasts
• Predicting multi-year droughts
• Quantifying multi-year droughts
• Enhanced multi-peril crop insurance
• Economic value of risk management from seasonal forecasts
• Developing drought monitoring indices
• Developing crop forecasting models

• Enhancing decision support tools
• Crop production modelling under climate change
• Regional climate change adaptation
• Managing for climate variability workshops

More details on the results of the projects will be available soon.

This type of approach may offer deeper insights for the rural communities in north Australia, as well as mining and other industries in the north.

Compost Awareness Week - May - 2011

It is International Compost Awareness Week this week...........with functions around the globe. The USA, Canada, UK and Australia are examples.

The message below is focussed on the East Coast of Australia, but relevant all over Australia.

Composting, the ‘intelligent’ alternative
Tuesday, 3 May 2011

That’s the message from the Centre for Organic & Resource Enterprises (CORE) at the launch of the sixth International Composting Awareness Week (ICAW). Organised in conjunction with Compost Australia (a division of the Waste Management Association of Australia), the week of events from May 1-7 will promote the benefits afforded to us all when our business communities and households get involved in composting.

“Composting is the responsible and sustainable thing to do for our planet,” according to CORE.

The major objectives of ICAW are to increase the diversion of organics from the main waste collection program through increasing awareness and participation in centralised composting, kerbside collections, home composting and community composting.“Each year over half the household garbage we produce is made up of food and garden organics. Most of this organic waste can be recycled by composting it”, said Eric Love, chairman of CORE.“If all this organic material was diverted from landfills and properly composted, it could be used to reverse the affects of climate change.

By applying this compost to gardens, farms and other land uses, millions of tonnes of carbon will be stored in the soil. This acts to lower the atmospheric temperatures that lead to changes in our climate.”

ICAW also aims to increase awareness and knowledge about the correct use of "soil-improving composts"; help reduce and recover food waste; and highlight the environmental and social benefits of composting including the opportunities to reduce our carbon emissions.

“Composting is not new. Compost has been used in crop production for over 4,000 years. Artificial fertilisers only became widely available a century ago. Australia is an old and eroded continent that is suffering from land degradation,” said Love.

Emissions from landfills are part of the Australian Federal Government’s carbon abatement initiative. If everyone composted, the total waste going to landfill could decrease by up to one third and emissions and disposal costs will drop, according to CORE.

Peter Wadewitz, chairman of Compost Australia said, “Compost produced by the recycled organics industry is already providing Australian landscape, horticulture and agricultural industries with affordable solutions to improve productivity and environmental outcomes.“Recycled carbon based products are also being effectively used to treat contaminated stormwater runoff and enabling the water to be reused, or more safely released into our waterways.”

Kimbriki Resource Recovery Centre is getting into the action of ICAW by offering talks, demonstrations and tours at its Ingleside/Terrey Hills site on May 3, 4 & 5 (at 10am and 2pm).

It will also give away 500 bags of Kimbriki Compost each day. Peter Rutherford, Kimbriki’s senior ecologist, will demonstrate simple ways to make great compost at home, and explain how this relates to healthy plants and healthy people. Australian Native Landscapes’ soil expert, Rob Niccol, will discuss composting and soil health; explain about the value of compost in larger projects and how it is being used to supplement Australia’s dwindling soil resources. He will also demonstrate the latest in mulch blowing technology and conduct a guided tour of the large-scale compost making operation at Kimbriki.

For more information visit: www.compostweek.com.au

Australian Red Meat is Carbon Efficient - near Carbon Neutral

This story has been reported in various forms recently, but actually finding the source material has been elusive.

But it will now soon be published in a peer reviewed credible journal.......so there is a bit of cred behind it.

There are many ways to skin a cat goes the old adage............reporting carbon figures is a lot like that! Depends on what is and is not counted, and where and how, and what might be excluded or where 'general" data is used as a substitue in the absence of any real world trial data.

However, this recent quite rigorous examination of pastoral land production of red meat shows that it is a carbon efficient means of production. Most of Australia's red meat is produced in this style, with smaller amounts on slightly higher productivity pastures that receive fertiliser.

It will not stop the counter arguments about cattle and sheep being land vandals, gross methane producers, etc etc. But is clearly shows the production is carbon efficient, and can be made even better......with considerable opportunities for being carbon positive, ie sequestering carbon. Further R and D is also being conducted into improving nett methane emissions from livestock through a range of advanced technologies. But lets not forget, that higher plant digestibility generally means lower methane emissions too. This can be a serious issue with lower inherent digestibility in many tropical forage plants, although most legumes are better.......yet tropical legumes seem a bit out of favour with grasses the now preferred plant type commonly.

Solid evidence and worth applause from all those in the pastoral industry.

And please note.........the pastoral industry has actually reduced greenhouse emisions since 1990. Hmmm......haven't sheep and cattle numbers also fallen since then too??


----------
Red meat proved to be carbon efficient

AUSTRALIAN red meat production is much more carbon-efficient than often reported in the media, says an important study by the University of NSW.

The three-year Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study of production systems in Victoria, NSW and WA showed carbon emissions from sheep and cattle meat production were among the lowest in the world.
It showed sheepmeat produced 7-8kg of CO2-equivalent per kg of meat (carcase weight) while for beef, values ranged from 8-11kg.

Based on figures from the research, eating red meat three times weekly results in 164kg to 258kg of CO2 emissions a year - vastly different to claims of emissions up to 1.5 tonnes.

The research will be published soon in the Environmental Science and Technology Journal.

Meat and Livestock Australia managing director, David Palmer said the "credible and reliable data" gave an accurate reflection of carbon emissions for Australia's meat production systems. "Most Australian cattle and sheep are raised in a natural environment feeding on pastures with little or no use of fertilisers and it is unfortunate that until now inaccurate and exaggerated figures have been used," he said.

LCA quantifies the important environmental impacts of all processes in a production system, but does not take into consideration the ability of soil and trees on farms to absorb carbon.

A recent Queensland Government report on total carbon balance on grazing lands in the state with 47pc of Australia's cattle production, found they were close to carbon-neutral and in the near future might be a net carbon sink. "Importantly the new figures give us a baseline from which to continue to improve the industry's performance in regards to emissions. However they do not paint a complete picture and should never be looked at in isolation from other environmental factors such as water and biodiversity," Mr Palmer said.

Most people were not aware that the livestock sector was the only production industry in Australia to have reduced greenhouse emissions since 1990. The Australian Greenhouse office said it had reduced emissions by 7.5pc, compared with increases in other industries such as transport and electricity, up 26.9pc and 54.1pc respectively, he said. "We now have a better basis to track improvement in the future."

The UNSW study shows that when assessed across the supply chain from paddock to processing, more than 80pc of carbon emissions come from the natural process of digestion of feed by the animal.

It was for this reason that MLA had co-invested with the Federal government and other partners in a $28 million program covering 18 research projects looking at how to reduce emissions from livestock.

The Australian Lot Feeders Association noted the UNSW report addressed the popular misconception that beef feedlots were energy intensive and worse for the environment than other forms of beef production. "The report concluded that beef from lotfed cattle had 50pc and 38pc lower methane emissions than organic and grassfed beef production respectively," ALFA president Jim Cudmore said.

This was because of superior nutrition and digestibility of feedlot rations and meant that cattle slaughter weights could be achieved at a younger age.

By improving the efficiency of beef production (through increasing the proportion of feed energy that is converted to beef) lower methane emissions per unit of product were obtained, he said. "Notably, this goal can be achieved by both grain and grassfed production systems. In addition, given that grainfed cattle spend the majority of their lives in a grassfed environment prior to feedlot entry, and consumers rarely differentiate between the two, the issue of improving the beef industry's overall emissions profile is something that the sector as a whole is looking to address."

[partially sourced Qld Country life]

Feeding the World - Agricultural Development BACK on the Agenda

Addressing the world's food problems should be the Obama administration's topmost aid priority, according to Catherine Bertini and Dan Glickman. Both are co-chairs of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs' Global Agricultural Development Project. Bertini was executive director of the World Food Program from 1992 to 2002, while Glickman was the U.S. agriculture secretary from 1995 to 2001.

This article puts agricultural aid firmly back on the high priority list in the US foreign policy agenda, previously dominated by defence - spending and military activity. They argue that in simple terms, people with full bellies do not want military activity nearby, and that the US could do a lot to redress the view of them that the rest of the world has, by forging a new agricultural revolution in the areas most desperate for agricultural productivity. Real agricultural productivity gains. Sadly, not a lot said about the agricultural trade issues though - maybe that might get back on the agenda too.

The media coverage has been extensive, but getting the full article is a bit tricky as Foreign Affairs magazine, where it appeared in the May / June 2009 edition, pp93-105, restricts access.

However, some excerpts have been published in various formats. It was a full article in The Australian Financial Review last Friday, July 17, 2009 and excerpts are available if you search around on line.

This link takes you to the extensive executive summary [23 pp] of the main report that formed the basis of the article in Foreign Affairs Magazine.
http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/globalagdevelopment/pdf/GADP_Final_Exec_Summary.pdf

The activity in this area has big implications for the foreign aid operations of not only the USA but Australia too. Like them, 20 -25 years ago Australia and Australians were very active and prominent in agricultural research and development world wide, in major R and D organisations and in real, on the ground rural development activities. Much of that has been degraded.......but it might be about to get a new lease of life.

A strongly commended article to read for all those interested in real agricultural development. It links well with a previous post on using GM technology in rural development areas too. There is technology around, useful technology [ salt tolerance in cereals too] but it needs harnessing for those really needing a boost in food production.

A Wet Summer and Monsoon Season in Australia 2007/2008?

The 30-day running average for the southern oscillation index (SOI) has continued its current upwards surge. It reached +11.08 at the start of this week.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says a SOI consistently above +6 for two months indicates an above-average probability of above-normal rainfall during this summer and autumn, in most parts of eastern Australia. It confirms the arrival of a La Nina (wet) period for the year ahead.

The current SOI figure has been maintained above +6 since the last two weeks in October.
So it's now reaching the critical two-months qualification period, as we enter December and the start of summer. The SOI plunged below zero in April last year, signifying last year's temperate zone drought. It stayed there until the last week of May this year, when it rose back above zero.
But, after just a month in positive territory, it plunged below zero again - which coincided with the failure of follow-up rains this autumn and winter, after an encouraging start for this year's winter crop.

BOM says a consistently negative SOI pattern (less than about minus 6 over a two month period) is related to a high probability of below median rainfall for many areas of Australia at certain times of the year.

At the end of August, the SOI lifted back above zero again, indicating that the El Nino (dry) phase of the climate cycle might be ending. But first it spent two months timidly hovering between zero and +5, without going anywhere higher. Then, during the last half of October and throughout November, the SOI has accelerated confidently upwards.

The SOI is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. This rising value for the SOI has contributed to the encouraging Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) latest rainfall forecasts for summer and autumn in most parts of eastern Australia.

For the NT region, cloudiness over the past several months, around the near-equatorial dateline and further east in the Pacific has mostly been less than normal, corresponding to cooler than average sea-surface temperatures of that region. Cool anomalies in subsurface water of the near-equatorial eastern and central Pacific have also existed for much of the year. Trade-winds in the near-equatorial Pacific have generally been stronger than normal and the Maritime Continent region [including tropical north-Australia] and the north-Indian Ocean has seen above average cloudiness.

La Nina events are generally associated with increased rainfall over much of northern Australia, but the response to this event has not been entirely typical. This may in part be due to these sea-surface temperatures of seas about the north Australian coast, which have been cooler than would typically be expected in La Nina events.

How the tropical climate system responds in coming months may be determined by the evolution of this sea-surface temperature pattern, which has shown some warming in recent weeks.

The influence of the recent active rainfall phase seems to be waning over the longitudes of northern Australia and there is a reasonable expectation of a suppressing effect on tropical weather from late November to the middle part of December.

Note though that the uncertain prognosis regarding the broader scale influence of La Nina conditions to this region introduces uncertainty regarding such an outlook. However, active conditions would be seen developing over northern Australia some time during the second half of December and as early as the middle of December.

At this time of year, development of an active MJO phase often shortly precedes monsoon development.

So, in summary over the next few weeks, we could have less rain, followed up by a potential improvement in mid to late December.......maybe even some monsoon conditions!

DROUGHT

Drought is slowly but surely killing temperate Australia. What is probably the worst drought in white settlement history has been strangling the rural sector in this country for 5- 7 years. In the north, it is not that noticeable........but as food prices now inexorably rise, we will all notice the effects. However, in the north of Australia we have our scourge too........an investigation into developing northern Australia chaired by Senator Bill Heffernan.....but that is another story, still unfolding.

Aid from government to drought affected areas has been provided but the article here questions the effectiveness of the policy. But prudent farmers once again, seem to be discriminated against. Would not it be better giving the money to the farmers?

See http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2056551.htm

Provocative, interesting and maybe a bit off the mark in some areas, but essentially offers an alternate viewpoint......direct the $$ where it will most useful.

Prayers, cloud seeding, mystical chants.....................even visits by politicians ....all are welcome if it will bring rain!

Biofuels -will they impact on water?

Green energy, blue impacts:Biofuels aggravate water scarcity

In the biofuel discussion, water has not received the attention it deserves. It is high time it does.
Pursuing biofuels in water short countries turns green energy into a blue threat.

A recent scenario analysis by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) indicates that biofuels will add to the strain on already stressed water resources.

Biofuel production will increase demand for land at the expense of nature.

It will also require large quantities of water, already a major constraint to agriculture in many parts of the world.

An estimated 40% of the world’s population lives in areas where water scarcity must be reckoned with. IWMI’s research under the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Mangement in Agriculture shows that at a global average, the biomass needed to produce one litre of biofuel evaporates between 1000 and 3,500 liters of water, under prevailing conversion techniques.

IWMI uses the WATERSIM model consisting of two integrated hydrological and economic modules to support its analysis. Using this model, IWMI has explored the water and land implications of increased biofuel production globally with a special focus on two countries : India and China. In India more than 60% of the cereals are irrigated. In China, more than 70%.

Almost all Indian sugarcane - the crop that India uses to produce ethanol - and about 45% of Chinese maize – China’s main biofuel crop - is irrigated. Both countries, responding to severe water shortages, initiated large projects to transfer water from water abundant to water short areas. These projects are controversial because of their costs, environmental impacts, and number of displaced people by big dams.

Charlotte de Fraiture, an IWMI scientist and lead author of the biofuels study says, “Biofuel production in China and India raises special concerns, because the crops to be used for biofuels—maize in China and sugarcane in India—would rely mainly on irrigation. “Even without increased biofuel production, water scarcity in these countries will worsen, as rising incomes and growing populations boost food demand.”

India and China have set ambitious goals for biofuel production to curb their rapidly growing appetites for fossil fuel imports.

Together, they account for almost 70pc of projected worldwide growth in oil demand between now and 2030.

Yet, the two countries are already struggling to find enough water to grow the food they need.

The survey also found, however, that at the global level, the rush to boost production of ethanol from crops like maize and sugarcane will most likely have only a modest impact on water use and food systems.

The report focuses on the many areas where water is already scarce, with special focus on China and India.

Unless other less water intensive alternatives are considered, the conclusion is that biofuels are not environmentally sustainable in India and China. Discussions on biofuel energy should put green energy into a blue context and take water issues into account.

While this may not be the same in other countries, particularly if crops are not irrigated, it is the outcome for these two countries where biofuel is being increased. India also has potential to develop other crops including Jatropha [ see this blog] that are labour intensive, but do not use valuable cropland or water.

The real issue is that energy use is likely to affect food production.

For more information see:www.scidev.net/content/opinions/eng/biofuel-crops-could-drain-developing-world-dry.cfm

www.iwmi.cgiar.org/EWMA/files/papers/Biofuels%20-%20Charlotte.pdf

Also see :Linkages between Energy and Water Management for Agriculture in Developing Countries - Conference Papers (January 2007)

[partially sourced from IWMI]

Still raining in WA and elsewhere across the south

Southern WA farmers have had their best break in years and have an enviable problem: they've had so much rain that the paddocks are too wet for the seeders to go in.

For the Ridley area north east of Esperance, 25- 45mm of rain over the weekend before Anzac Day stopped proceedings, with the April total around 100mm. This followed on from 150mm in the January floods, in an area where the yearly average is around 425mm.

Many farmers see it as the best season break in over 25 years. April is often seen as the critical "last time" opportunity to have adequate rain for sowing cereal crops.

But many farmers are now sitting it out as paddocks are too wet to work. The spin-off of positivity has been particularly felt by local machinery dealers who have experienced a big lift in satellite guidance sales.

Seems to follow the pattern in the poem "Said Hanrahan"! However, most farmers are more than happy to be seeing rain - at last.

Rain across the other states has not been as much, although now much of temperate Australia are smiling, a spring in their step knowing that decent rain has come and more seems to be coming.

The latter point will be critical to generate adequate runoff and infiltration into groundwater, both highly significant in renewing the waterflows into dams, rivers and tanks and enhancing the lifeblood of the entire region.

Is the drought over?

ITS RAINING IN SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA......................AND SERIOUS WIDESPREAD RAIN!!!!

Maybe, just maybe..........the drought might be finishing.

There has been good rain [ 25 - 50mm, sometimes a bit more] across much of southern Australia from Western Australia through South Australia and now [ 28 April] extending into Victoria, NSW and S Queensland and Tasmania.

There even appears to be more frontal systems coming across, with additional rain predicted for next week too.

While most farmers are being cautious in thinking or saying too much, this weekend will see a lot of tractors racing across paddocks with urgent planting of forage and grain crops, to follow some planted dry last week. There is guarded optimism in these temperate farming areas.

BUT..........river flows are abysmally low to nil, and it will take a huge amount of rain to get them going again.

It is also notable that the SOI has changed dramatically and quickly from weakening from a strong negative to be close to neutral or slightly negative over the past several months [ie close to neutral, or tending towards normal ] to be -11, whiich is strongly el Nino. This type of figure, if persistent, is usually interpreted as indicating el Nino conditions - and dry for temperate Australia. So one needs to watch through a few different indicators. Most climate forecasters tend to favour more normal to slightly wetter conditions over the next 3-6 months [ see post of March 21], and there is a good discussion on climate pages of the Met Bureau web site. They favour slightly better than median rainfall in temperate areas of Australia over the next few months [ www.bom.gov.au].

Australia is a land of contrasts, with drought often followed by flood. Summed up so eloquently in the poem of John O'Brien "Said Hanrahan"

SAID HANRAHAN by John O'Brien

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.

The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.

"It's looking crook," said Daniel Croke;
"Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad."

"It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.

And so around the chorus ran
"It's keepin' dry, no doubt."
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."

"The crops are done; ye'll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke
They're singin' out for rain.

"They're singin' out for rain," he said,
"And all the tanks are dry."
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.

"There won't be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There's not a blade on Casey's place
As I came down to Mass."

"If rain don't come this month," said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak -
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If rain don't come this week."

A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.

"We want an inch of rain, we do,"
O'Neil observed at last;
But Croke "maintained" we wanted two
To put the danger past.

"If we don't get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."

In God's good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.

And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.

It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o'-Bourke.

And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If this rain doesn't stop."

And stop it did, in God's good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o'er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.

And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o'er the fence.

And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place
Went riding down to Mass.

While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.

"There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."

[from "Around the Boree Log and Other Verses", 1921]

Are farmers the same everywhere?

Will it rain? or....... it will rain soon!

I am using a very interesting article on the potential for drought prediction in Southern Australia., rather than writing something myself........this is definitely worth a read! In the North, this wet season is currently VERY wet, with March rainfall generally well above average in most northern areas, so drought is not present. But the dry season will come soon enough, and there will be no rain for many months. Southern Australia is very very dry, with both stock and even househoold water often in short supply.

As a guide, current SOI is +1.4. Positive and staying there, even increasing slightly. The SOI is the Southern Oscillation Index commonly used as an indicator for predicting dry or wet conditions. See www.bom.gov.au for a lot more information.

Start of wetter cycle underway: new research
Australia Tuesday, 20 March 2007

The worst drought in a century could end this year, according to a scientist who has linked the cycle of sunspots and the "looping" of the sun's magnetic field to Australia's weather patterns. Associate Professor Robert Baker, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, says the rhythmic pattern in the sun's energy output strongly influences weather patterns. The rhythms apply especially in the southern Hemisphere and in eastern Australia under the influence of the huge size of the Pacific Ocean. The two key, related sun rhythms are:
• The sun's poles which switch every 11 years
• The sun's magnetic emissions which peak, every 11 years also, in periods of increased sunspot activity.

On earth, periods of high sun magnetic activity coincide with periods of high rainfall, according to Prof Baker's data, using records of observations made as far back as 1876. Periods of stable magnetic activity coincide with dry periods. The fluctuations appear to impact on the earth's upper atmosphere, which, in turn, contributes to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - and a consistently positive SOL is linked to wetter years, a negative SOI indicates dry years. About half of the variations in the SOI can be attributed to the sun's magnetic rhythms.Prof Baker said the current stage of the cycle, since the last "flip" in 2001, meant that the eastern half of Australia could look forward to 18 months of heavy rain and then a 10-year "window" of average rainfalls. "The sun's magnetic field is now in a similar position to what it was in 1924 and 1925, when eastern Australia had particularly good rainfall," Prof Baker said. "If this tracking continues, we can expect average to heavy rainfall for eastern Australia within six months. "Then the wet cycle should continue into 2008." Prof Baker said sunspot activity was currently increasing as it normally did in this part of the sun's magnetic cycle, which has been an historic pointer to above-average rainfall.

While long-range weather prediction, using the sun or any other measure, was problematic, Prof Baker said his own theory pointed to 2009 as the next period of potential drought in Australia. In the longer term, an even worse drought could await the country in the 2020s. The most intense droughts tend to occur about a year after the sun flips its magnetic poles, every 22 years.

Prof Baker said his system of analysis simply complemented other methods of weather prediction and did not take into account the effects of carbon emissions on climate change. "If this coming cycle of predicted rainfall does not occur, it will be undeniable that carbon emissions are impacting on our climate in a very profound way," Prof Baker said. "In using this system, as opposed to other methods of long-range weather prediction, I'm trying to be as transparent as possible." "This is a very useful tool - this is the engine that drives the whole climate system."

But Prof Baker said even if his predictions were borne out and Australia received solid rainfall over the next 18 months, government and water consumers should not rest on their laurels. "We will simply have a 10-year window of opportunity to get our act together," he said. A paper on this research has been submitted to the journal Solar Terrestrial Physics.

SOURCE: AAP and FarmOnline