Mid January 2020 and still no monsoon arrival. Getting quite late but not yet the latest date recorded.
However, it could be some time away with a few of the global weather drivers looking decidedly dodgy ie not especially positive for a monsoon burst anytime soon.
Read the current Tropical Climate Note from earlier this week [http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/ ] and note the eastwards movement of the MJO away from our region, usually negative for rain across N Australia.
Today's weather reports refer to hot and drier conditions across the north over the next few days, although there may be storms.
Please continue to wait.......and wait...........and wait.
---------------------------------------------
3 February 2020 - UPDATE - now coming .........the monsoon onset!! Latest ever for Darwin and even now it is still not quite here YET. Maybe in a few days still. While a monsoonal low is moving west several hundred kms SW of Darwin, officially not yet for Darwin!
Showing posts with label rain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rain. Show all posts
Thursday, January 16, 2020
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Climate Change May Boost Agriculture in SE Asia
Climate change 'may boost South-East Asian agriculture'
Increased rainfall and temperature due to climate change could bring benefits to South-East Asian agriculture, a study suggests, contradicting more common expectations that a warmer planet will reduce agricultural productivity in the region.
Scientists from the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) have predicted that precipitation levels in vast areas of South-East Asia will remain stable, and most of the anticipated changes will occur over the sea, rather than over land.
In southern Vietnam and Cambodia, for instance, precipitation changes will be so minimal that farm production will barely be affected. In central and northern Myanmar, the increase will in fact help to raise crop output, as these are the driest areas in the region.
A
n increase in temperature may also increase crop yield in northern parts of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar, since crops such as rice and vegetables rely on regular rainfall and are most vulnerable to variability in weather. "At the regional scale, precipitation and temperature changes should benefit agricultural production, as significant precipitation increases will occur in the drier areas, whereas the steepest temperature rises will affect the coldest parts," says the study.
The study was carried out by IWMI scientists Guillaume Lacombe, Chu Thai Hoanh and Vladimir Smakhtin. Lacombe, the study’s lead author, told SciDev.Net that the findings will help the region's policymakers plan for food security — which is being threatened by climate change.
"This study helps characterise and quantify climate change," said Lacombe. "It could help [in sustaining] food security by showing where most drastic changes in rainfall patterns over the long term will occur. This should help the prioritisation of areas of intervention for climate change adaptation."
Lacombe said he and fellow hydrologists drew this conclusion through using PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), a regional climate modelling system designed to run on a Linux-based (an open source operating system) computer and to give detailed climate change projections in any region.
Despite optimistic results, Lacombe pointed out that climate change will have other impacts, such as rises in sea level, which could make the Mekong Delta in southwestern Vietnam more saline, leading to the destruction of rice farms. Climate change could also increase pest numbers and disease prevalence.
Lacombe said that policymakers in the region needed to consider climate projections obtained using several other climate models — in addition to the PRECIS model — before making any decisions about an appropriate response. He also stressed that PRECIS is a regional model and not a global model.
The study concludes with a call for further studies to focus on how climate trends might interact with other environmental changes caused by the region's demographic and economic developments.
Link to article
Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0359-3 (2012)
-----------------------------------------------------
Everyone seems to believe that climate change will result in less rainfall. This recent article seems to allay those fears for much of SE Asia. Work related to north Australia also seems to point in this same trend.
Sea level rise is still a serious issue in Asia as well as north Australia, so outcomes are not just that simple.But it is relevant to at least see some outcomes more focused on our region.
Friday, September 02, 2011
Watching Tropical Weather
For those in Australia's tropics another wet season is approaching quickly, and weather conditions seem to have recently changed to being warmer and more humid, a foretaste of the approaching build up weather.
Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones are different names for similar major tropical weather events - depending where you are located.
Keeping watch on these systems is becoming more sophisticated, with more information also readily available to the public via web sites. I remember observing Cyclone Thelma as it barrelled around the north coast of Australia a few years ago, wondering if our home in Darwin would be impacted.........all from a laptop computer in an upmarket hotel room in Kota Kinabalu in Sabah, SE Asia. More tools are now available.
One data tool I had not seen previously is demonstrated for Hurricane Irene, truly a very large diameter system of current note.
http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/43182 will take you to the introductory area with a further link to NASA in the USA.
This shows a combined mapping of wind and rain data for hurricane Irene, and some hints of real time data on cloud heights being linked to intensifying wind patterns, while they were happening.
Will this be available for Australia as well this cyclone season??
Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones are different names for similar major tropical weather events - depending where you are located.
Keeping watch on these systems is becoming more sophisticated, with more information also readily available to the public via web sites. I remember observing Cyclone Thelma as it barrelled around the north coast of Australia a few years ago, wondering if our home in Darwin would be impacted.........all from a laptop computer in an upmarket hotel room in Kota Kinabalu in Sabah, SE Asia. More tools are now available.
One data tool I had not seen previously is demonstrated for Hurricane Irene, truly a very large diameter system of current note.
http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/43182 will take you to the introductory area with a further link to NASA in the USA.
This shows a combined mapping of wind and rain data for hurricane Irene, and some hints of real time data on cloud heights being linked to intensifying wind patterns, while they were happening.
Will this be available for Australia as well this cyclone season??
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Rainwater Harvesting in the Tropics
Rainwater Harvesting in the Tropical north
In north Australia where rainfall is mostly very seasonal, with relatively well defined wet and then drier periods of the year it is possible to collect significant amounts of rainfall – rainfall harvesting. The hardest issue to contend with is the need to store relatively larger percentages due to the seasonally dry conditions.
This is particularly so in the north west of Australia – Darwin and areas west around the Kimberley coast where 4 – 8 months may have zero rain, and rainfall declines as you move away from the coastal areas.
However..............look at the data. Columns 2 and 3 show the amount potentially falling on the roof, in Kilolitres [KL] under a range of roof areas , for two different annual rainfall amounts
Roof area [sq metres] Rainfall – 1000mm/yr Rainfall - 1500mm /yr
200 200KL 300KL
250 250KL 375KL
400 400KL 600KL
If you assume a capture rate of 80%, the amounts potentially available are shown in the tables below. A capture rate of 80% could be considered in the low range area, as in the tropics much of the rain falls in significant storms, and in this situation a smaller proportion is wasted in first flush diversion or similar systems that divert the first smaller volumes of rain to ensure clean water is captured and goes into storage.
Roof area – sq m 80% capture of 1000mm/yr -KL 80% capture of 1500mm/yr-KL
200 160 240
250 200 300
400 320 480
The roof areas selected have been used as examples of small, medium and medium/large areas under roof with gutters and collection systems, and include the additive potential from a house roof, garage and sheds. They apply equally to urban and semi-rural locations.
For straight “in house” domestic use, with sensible management, a family of four could use less than 100KL. And there are a lot of options and management ideas to be considered.
For use outside the household areas, a modest lawn and garden could be developed with usage in the 100 – 200KL/year, especially if sensible grey water and effluent use was practised, using systems that allow subsurface disposal of these products.
One option is the use of KISSS subsurface irrigation systems [see www.iwtech.com.au] along with a range of approved alternative wastewater treatment systems – that is, a system somewhat superior to the older style septic tank, which treats effluent at least to secondary standard or better.
There are a wide range of these, and in Australia each State or local government region has approval systems for various brands and types, so you need to check what is legally available and approved.
The really tricky part is to work out how much you need stored around the end of the rainy season.
Some sort of monthly water balance is required, to calculate input and usage, but as a very broad guide, somewhere between 100 and 150KL would be needed at around the end of the rainy season.
More storage allows more extensive outside greenery development, naturally. Also remember that this stored water is a valuable resource for any fire fighting, and bushfires can be a threat in the drier months.
Tank Management
A few short comments.......
· Many users of tank water do not worry about water treatment, but there are some simple treatments if needed. Use in line or in tank UV treatment – this seems to be now seen as the most efficient way to kill any nasties in the water
· Clean water in – means clean water in the tank, so keep gutters clean and use pre treatments such as first flush diversion, leaf guards and similar systems.
· Keep mosquito larvae out of the tank.......screening has usually been seen as a simple solution, and of course this also keeps some particles out of the tank. The screen must be cleaned regularly to allow easy flow of the water into the tank, and two stage mesh systems do work well. In parts of Asia some areas use copepods [small animals that eat mosquito larvae] in tanks to prevent development of larvae.
Mosquito and mosquito larvae management is vital in those areas known to have the dengue mosquito present.
This is not a complete guide to using rainwater and tanks, but to show it is very definitely possible in this region, based on rainfall, and usage patterns and known areas of roof cover.
Even if there is no need to provide all of a households water needs, there are opportunities to collect and store rainwater for outside use – filling swimming pools, washing cars, garden watering to reduce using expensive treated potable water.
If planning a new house..........a suitable place for a tank may be under the driveway or under the lawn areas, rather than an above ground object in the yard! Many designs allow for traffic across the top of the tank.
It is not always difficult and can be an option where groundwater supplies are poor, or there are other issues around groundwater usage.
In north Australia where rainfall is mostly very seasonal, with relatively well defined wet and then drier periods of the year it is possible to collect significant amounts of rainfall – rainfall harvesting. The hardest issue to contend with is the need to store relatively larger percentages due to the seasonally dry conditions.
This is particularly so in the north west of Australia – Darwin and areas west around the Kimberley coast where 4 – 8 months may have zero rain, and rainfall declines as you move away from the coastal areas.
However..............look at the data. Columns 2 and 3 show the amount potentially falling on the roof, in Kilolitres [KL] under a range of roof areas , for two different annual rainfall amounts
Roof area [sq metres] Rainfall – 1000mm/yr Rainfall - 1500mm /yr
200 200KL 300KL
250 250KL 375KL
400 400KL 600KL
If you assume a capture rate of 80%, the amounts potentially available are shown in the tables below. A capture rate of 80% could be considered in the low range area, as in the tropics much of the rain falls in significant storms, and in this situation a smaller proportion is wasted in first flush diversion or similar systems that divert the first smaller volumes of rain to ensure clean water is captured and goes into storage.
Roof area – sq m 80% capture of 1000mm/yr -KL 80% capture of 1500mm/yr-KL
200 160 240
250 200 300
400 320 480
The roof areas selected have been used as examples of small, medium and medium/large areas under roof with gutters and collection systems, and include the additive potential from a house roof, garage and sheds. They apply equally to urban and semi-rural locations.
For straight “in house” domestic use, with sensible management, a family of four could use less than 100KL. And there are a lot of options and management ideas to be considered.
For use outside the household areas, a modest lawn and garden could be developed with usage in the 100 – 200KL/year, especially if sensible grey water and effluent use was practised, using systems that allow subsurface disposal of these products.
One option is the use of KISSS subsurface irrigation systems [see www.iwtech.com.au] along with a range of approved alternative wastewater treatment systems – that is, a system somewhat superior to the older style septic tank, which treats effluent at least to secondary standard or better.
There are a wide range of these, and in Australia each State or local government region has approval systems for various brands and types, so you need to check what is legally available and approved.
The really tricky part is to work out how much you need stored around the end of the rainy season.
Some sort of monthly water balance is required, to calculate input and usage, but as a very broad guide, somewhere between 100 and 150KL would be needed at around the end of the rainy season.
More storage allows more extensive outside greenery development, naturally. Also remember that this stored water is a valuable resource for any fire fighting, and bushfires can be a threat in the drier months.
Tank Management
A few short comments.......
· Many users of tank water do not worry about water treatment, but there are some simple treatments if needed. Use in line or in tank UV treatment – this seems to be now seen as the most efficient way to kill any nasties in the water
· Clean water in – means clean water in the tank, so keep gutters clean and use pre treatments such as first flush diversion, leaf guards and similar systems.
· Keep mosquito larvae out of the tank.......screening has usually been seen as a simple solution, and of course this also keeps some particles out of the tank. The screen must be cleaned regularly to allow easy flow of the water into the tank, and two stage mesh systems do work well. In parts of Asia some areas use copepods [small animals that eat mosquito larvae] in tanks to prevent development of larvae.
Mosquito and mosquito larvae management is vital in those areas known to have the dengue mosquito present.
This is not a complete guide to using rainwater and tanks, but to show it is very definitely possible in this region, based on rainfall, and usage patterns and known areas of roof cover.
Even if there is no need to provide all of a households water needs, there are opportunities to collect and store rainwater for outside use – filling swimming pools, washing cars, garden watering to reduce using expensive treated potable water.
If planning a new house..........a suitable place for a tank may be under the driveway or under the lawn areas, rather than an above ground object in the yard! Many designs allow for traffic across the top of the tank.
It is not always difficult and can be an option where groundwater supplies are poor, or there are other issues around groundwater usage.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Soil Erosion a Threat to Food Production in China
Soil erosion in Australia is a serious issue. The environmental brigade will tell you how dire it is, any where and every where. That is an gross over the top attention grabber, for erosion is a natural process closely associated with geological processes over countless millenia. What we need is a system to minimise that soil loss particularly in the most productive land around Australia, or anywhere else in the world too.
Many will argue that the National Landcare program and the myriad action programs at all levels, now operational for about 25 years, has made significant gains in managing the Australian landscape processes, and reducing erosion. At least we like to think so, but it is probably fair to say some good progress continues to be made. The program has been copied and developed in other countries too - notably The Phillipines and South Africa.
While we in Australia might feel good, it is a timely reminder to consider recent information emerging from China. Things are pretty grim in relation to erosion. Picture the giant erosional gullies of the loess plateau......most people have seen those. But it gets worse.
Over a third of China's land is being scoured by serious erosion that is putting its crops and water supply at risk, a three-year nationwide survey has found.
Soil is being washed and blown away not only in remote rural areas, but near mines, factories and even in cities, the official Xinhua agency cited the country's bio-environment security research team saying.
Each year some 4.5 billion tonnes of soil are lost, threatening the country's ability to feed itself.
If the loss continues at this rate, harvests in China's northeastern breadbasket could fall 40 percent in 50 years, adding to erosion costs estimated at 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) in this decade alone.
"China has a more dire situation than India, Japan, the United States, Australia and many other countries suffering from soil erosion," Xinhua quoted the research team saying.
Beijing has long been worried about the desertification of its northern grasslands, and scaled back logging after rain rushing down denuded mountainsides caused massive flooding along the Yangtze in the late 1990s. But around 1.6 million square km of land are still being degraded by water erosion, with almost every river basin affected. The photo shows erosion and bare soils on the loess plateau in China's North East.
Another 2.0 million square km are under attack from wind, the report said.
The survey was the largest on soil conservation since the Communist Party took control of China in 1949.
If you have been to Beijing, you will certainly have experienced the yellow skies from the soil blowing from the west, that irritates the eyes, common in the late winter and early spring periods. Or the steady soil clouds lifted from bare soils in Outer Mongolia, not even that far from Beijing itself. We most certainly could not get farmers to change their thinking and even consider conservation tillage in projects we worked on in China during the late 1990s.
The following two photos show some of the awesome erosion seen on the loess plateau of China. It can be staggering!
A China with food production problems is worth pondering. Also adds some pondering to be considered along with the analysis on "The Politics of Hunger" in a recent post.
[lower two photos used with permission. Thanks. Copyright- Cathy Dowd]
Many will argue that the National Landcare program and the myriad action programs at all levels, now operational for about 25 years, has made significant gains in managing the Australian landscape processes, and reducing erosion. At least we like to think so, but it is probably fair to say some good progress continues to be made. The program has been copied and developed in other countries too - notably The Phillipines and South Africa.
While we in Australia might feel good, it is a timely reminder to consider recent information emerging from China. Things are pretty grim in relation to erosion. Picture the giant erosional gullies of the loess plateau......most people have seen those. But it gets worse.
Over a third of China's land is being scoured by serious erosion that is putting its crops and water supply at risk, a three-year nationwide survey has found.
Soil is being washed and blown away not only in remote rural areas, but near mines, factories and even in cities, the official Xinhua agency cited the country's bio-environment security research team saying.
Each year some 4.5 billion tonnes of soil are lost, threatening the country's ability to feed itself.
If the loss continues at this rate, harvests in China's northeastern breadbasket could fall 40 percent in 50 years, adding to erosion costs estimated at 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) in this decade alone.
"China has a more dire situation than India, Japan, the United States, Australia and many other countries suffering from soil erosion," Xinhua quoted the research team saying.
Beijing has long been worried about the desertification of its northern grasslands, and scaled back logging after rain rushing down denuded mountainsides caused massive flooding along the Yangtze in the late 1990s. But around 1.6 million square km of land are still being degraded by water erosion, with almost every river basin affected. The photo shows erosion and bare soils on the loess plateau in China's North East.
Another 2.0 million square km are under attack from wind, the report said.
The survey was the largest on soil conservation since the Communist Party took control of China in 1949.
If you have been to Beijing, you will certainly have experienced the yellow skies from the soil blowing from the west, that irritates the eyes, common in the late winter and early spring periods. Or the steady soil clouds lifted from bare soils in Outer Mongolia, not even that far from Beijing itself. We most certainly could not get farmers to change their thinking and even consider conservation tillage in projects we worked on in China during the late 1990s.
The following two photos show some of the awesome erosion seen on the loess plateau of China. It can be staggering!
A China with food production problems is worth pondering. Also adds some pondering to be considered along with the analysis on "The Politics of Hunger" in a recent post.
[lower two photos used with permission. Thanks. Copyright- Cathy Dowd]
Friday, September 14, 2007
Great Turf - Great Frontage .........Great Business!
Appearances do count but water is precious………..do YOUR bit for the environment!
Peter Harrison –office@abovecapricorn.com.au
Many businesses want their premises to look smart, neat and tidy, both inside and out. The old adage of “initial impressions count” might have been said with business in mind.
Effort and money goes into a neat, turfed street frontage at a business. In the NT, watering of the area is vital to maintain appearances, with most having some form of pop-up sprinklers. But they are often a cause of frustration.
In numerous areas, vandals or other incidents damage the sprinkler, they commonly over spray on to hard surfaces and with our intermittent power supply , suddenly the timer operates in the middle of the day, spraying customers. As well, many, if not all over irrigate or supply water in a fashion that does not provide a suitable soil moisture regime, which should be deeper watering, less frequently.
The modern solution is the Kapillary Irrigation Sub Surface System, or KISSS. Already widely used in eastern states to improve water efficiency it can be a great option here too. More information at www.kisss.net.au. This system is usually cost comparable with sprinklers, but with superior operational benefits.
· “Anytime” watering when plants need it most without interfering with business operations
· Wide area underground watering
· Extremely high water use efficiency – commonly save 50% over sprinkler use
· NO over spray on hard surfaces or roadways
· Reduced cost of irrigation, due to reduced water use and low pressure systems
· Lowered maintenance
Even without improved water use efficiencies, addressing issues of suitable species choice, adequate plant nutrition, weed management, thatch and mowing height and frequency can save you many dollars. Consider revisiting what you do in these areas; seek professional advice, do not rely on your mowing contractor – they make money by cutting more grass and selling more services. You want to reduce their costs, while maintaining or improving aesthetics.
As well as improved water use efficiency, many premises may wish to consider rainwater capture off the roof. This is a very practical option for business, as large roof areas of shed facilities used in conjunction with, for example 30 - 60KL of tank storage [above or below ground in many different forms] can provide adequate water for many on site uses, for around $5 - 7000. This water use includes toilet flushing, vehicle washdown and some irrigation. It reduces polluted stormwater flows, and improves the harbour water quality by reducing these inflows, for most stormwater ends up there. Yes…….there is a cost, but green businesses are often perceived as “good” businesses by customers.
With all of us needing to do more environmentally, these options are technically and financially feasible for the NT.
Peter Harrison –office@abovecapricorn.com.au
Many businesses want their premises to look smart, neat and tidy, both inside and out. The old adage of “initial impressions count” might have been said with business in mind.
Effort and money goes into a neat, turfed street frontage at a business. In the NT, watering of the area is vital to maintain appearances, with most having some form of pop-up sprinklers. But they are often a cause of frustration.
In numerous areas, vandals or other incidents damage the sprinkler, they commonly over spray on to hard surfaces and with our intermittent power supply , suddenly the timer operates in the middle of the day, spraying customers. As well, many, if not all over irrigate or supply water in a fashion that does not provide a suitable soil moisture regime, which should be deeper watering, less frequently.
The modern solution is the Kapillary Irrigation Sub Surface System, or KISSS. Already widely used in eastern states to improve water efficiency it can be a great option here too. More information at www.kisss.net.au. This system is usually cost comparable with sprinklers, but with superior operational benefits.
· “Anytime” watering when plants need it most without interfering with business operations
· Wide area underground watering
· Extremely high water use efficiency – commonly save 50% over sprinkler use
· NO over spray on hard surfaces or roadways
· Reduced cost of irrigation, due to reduced water use and low pressure systems
· Lowered maintenance
Even without improved water use efficiencies, addressing issues of suitable species choice, adequate plant nutrition, weed management, thatch and mowing height and frequency can save you many dollars. Consider revisiting what you do in these areas; seek professional advice, do not rely on your mowing contractor – they make money by cutting more grass and selling more services. You want to reduce their costs, while maintaining or improving aesthetics.
As well as improved water use efficiency, many premises may wish to consider rainwater capture off the roof. This is a very practical option for business, as large roof areas of shed facilities used in conjunction with, for example 30 - 60KL of tank storage [above or below ground in many different forms] can provide adequate water for many on site uses, for around $5 - 7000. This water use includes toilet flushing, vehicle washdown and some irrigation. It reduces polluted stormwater flows, and improves the harbour water quality by reducing these inflows, for most stormwater ends up there. Yes…….there is a cost, but green businesses are often perceived as “good” businesses by customers.
With all of us needing to do more environmentally, these options are technically and financially feasible for the NT.
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Still raining in WA and elsewhere across the south
Southern WA farmers have had their best break in years and have an enviable problem: they've had so much rain that the paddocks are too wet for the seeders to go in.
For the Ridley area north east of Esperance, 25- 45mm of rain over the weekend before Anzac Day stopped proceedings, with the April total around 100mm. This followed on from 150mm in the January floods, in an area where the yearly average is around 425mm.
Many farmers see it as the best season break in over 25 years. April is often seen as the critical "last time" opportunity to have adequate rain for sowing cereal crops.
But many farmers are now sitting it out as paddocks are too wet to work. The spin-off of positivity has been particularly felt by local machinery dealers who have experienced a big lift in satellite guidance sales.
Seems to follow the pattern in the poem "Said Hanrahan"! However, most farmers are more than happy to be seeing rain - at last.
Rain across the other states has not been as much, although now much of temperate Australia are smiling, a spring in their step knowing that decent rain has come and more seems to be coming.
The latter point will be critical to generate adequate runoff and infiltration into groundwater, both highly significant in renewing the waterflows into dams, rivers and tanks and enhancing the lifeblood of the entire region.
For the Ridley area north east of Esperance, 25- 45mm of rain over the weekend before Anzac Day stopped proceedings, with the April total around 100mm. This followed on from 150mm in the January floods, in an area where the yearly average is around 425mm.
Many farmers see it as the best season break in over 25 years. April is often seen as the critical "last time" opportunity to have adequate rain for sowing cereal crops.
But many farmers are now sitting it out as paddocks are too wet to work. The spin-off of positivity has been particularly felt by local machinery dealers who have experienced a big lift in satellite guidance sales.
Seems to follow the pattern in the poem "Said Hanrahan"! However, most farmers are more than happy to be seeing rain - at last.
Rain across the other states has not been as much, although now much of temperate Australia are smiling, a spring in their step knowing that decent rain has come and more seems to be coming.
The latter point will be critical to generate adequate runoff and infiltration into groundwater, both highly significant in renewing the waterflows into dams, rivers and tanks and enhancing the lifeblood of the entire region.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Is the drought over?
ITS RAINING IN SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA......................AND SERIOUS WIDESPREAD RAIN!!!!
Maybe, just maybe..........the drought might be finishing.
There has been good rain [ 25 - 50mm, sometimes a bit more] across much of southern Australia from Western Australia through South Australia and now [ 28 April] extending into Victoria, NSW and S Queensland and Tasmania.
There even appears to be more frontal systems coming across, with additional rain predicted for next week too.
While most farmers are being cautious in thinking or saying too much, this weekend will see a lot of tractors racing across paddocks with urgent planting of forage and grain crops, to follow some planted dry last week. There is guarded optimism in these temperate farming areas.
BUT..........river flows are abysmally low to nil, and it will take a huge amount of rain to get them going again.
It is also notable that the SOI has changed dramatically and quickly from weakening from a strong negative to be close to neutral or slightly negative over the past several months [ie close to neutral, or tending towards normal ] to be -11, whiich is strongly el Nino. This type of figure, if persistent, is usually interpreted as indicating el Nino conditions - and dry for temperate Australia. So one needs to watch through a few different indicators. Most climate forecasters tend to favour more normal to slightly wetter conditions over the next 3-6 months [ see post of March 21], and there is a good discussion on climate pages of the Met Bureau web site. They favour slightly better than median rainfall in temperate areas of Australia over the next few months [ www.bom.gov.au].
Australia is a land of contrasts, with drought often followed by flood. Summed up so eloquently in the poem of John O'Brien "Said Hanrahan"
SAID HANRAHAN by John O'Brien
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
"It's looking crook," said Daniel Croke;
"Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad."
"It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
"It's keepin' dry, no doubt."
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."
"The crops are done; ye'll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke
They're singin' out for rain.
"They're singin' out for rain," he said,
"And all the tanks are dry."
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
"There won't be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There's not a blade on Casey's place
As I came down to Mass."
"If rain don't come this month," said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak -
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If rain don't come this week."
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
"We want an inch of rain, we do,"
O'Neil observed at last;
But Croke "maintained" we wanted two
To put the danger past.
"If we don't get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."
In God's good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o'-Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If this rain doesn't stop."
And stop it did, in God's good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o'er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o'er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
"There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."
[from "Around the Boree Log and Other Verses", 1921]
Are farmers the same everywhere?
Maybe, just maybe..........the drought might be finishing.
There has been good rain [ 25 - 50mm, sometimes a bit more] across much of southern Australia from Western Australia through South Australia and now [ 28 April] extending into Victoria, NSW and S Queensland and Tasmania.
There even appears to be more frontal systems coming across, with additional rain predicted for next week too.
While most farmers are being cautious in thinking or saying too much, this weekend will see a lot of tractors racing across paddocks with urgent planting of forage and grain crops, to follow some planted dry last week. There is guarded optimism in these temperate farming areas.
BUT..........river flows are abysmally low to nil, and it will take a huge amount of rain to get them going again.
It is also notable that the SOI has changed dramatically and quickly from weakening from a strong negative to be close to neutral or slightly negative over the past several months [ie close to neutral, or tending towards normal ] to be -11, whiich is strongly el Nino. This type of figure, if persistent, is usually interpreted as indicating el Nino conditions - and dry for temperate Australia. So one needs to watch through a few different indicators. Most climate forecasters tend to favour more normal to slightly wetter conditions over the next 3-6 months [ see post of March 21], and there is a good discussion on climate pages of the Met Bureau web site. They favour slightly better than median rainfall in temperate areas of Australia over the next few months [ www.bom.gov.au].
Australia is a land of contrasts, with drought often followed by flood. Summed up so eloquently in the poem of John O'Brien "Said Hanrahan"
SAID HANRAHAN by John O'Brien
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
"It's looking crook," said Daniel Croke;
"Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad."
"It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
"It's keepin' dry, no doubt."
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."
"The crops are done; ye'll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke
They're singin' out for rain.
"They're singin' out for rain," he said,
"And all the tanks are dry."
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
"There won't be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There's not a blade on Casey's place
As I came down to Mass."
"If rain don't come this month," said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak -
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If rain don't come this week."
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
"We want an inch of rain, we do,"
O'Neil observed at last;
But Croke "maintained" we wanted two
To put the danger past.
"If we don't get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."
In God's good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o'-Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If this rain doesn't stop."
And stop it did, in God's good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o'er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o'er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
"There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."
[from "Around the Boree Log and Other Verses", 1921]
Are farmers the same everywhere?
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Will it rain? or....... it will rain soon!
I am using a very interesting article on the potential for drought prediction in Southern Australia., rather than writing something myself........this is definitely worth a read! In the North, this wet season is currently VERY wet, with March rainfall generally well above average in most northern areas, so drought is not present. But the dry season will come soon enough, and there will be no rain for many months. Southern Australia is very very dry, with both stock and even househoold water often in short supply.
As a guide, current SOI is +1.4. Positive and staying there, even increasing slightly. The SOI is the Southern Oscillation Index commonly used as an indicator for predicting dry or wet conditions. See www.bom.gov.au for a lot more information.
Start of wetter cycle underway: new research
Australia Tuesday, 20 March 2007
The worst drought in a century could end this year, according to a scientist who has linked the cycle of sunspots and the "looping" of the sun's magnetic field to Australia's weather patterns. Associate Professor Robert Baker, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, says the rhythmic pattern in the sun's energy output strongly influences weather patterns. The rhythms apply especially in the southern Hemisphere and in eastern Australia under the influence of the huge size of the Pacific Ocean. The two key, related sun rhythms are:
• The sun's poles which switch every 11 years
• The sun's magnetic emissions which peak, every 11 years also, in periods of increased sunspot activity.
On earth, periods of high sun magnetic activity coincide with periods of high rainfall, according to Prof Baker's data, using records of observations made as far back as 1876. Periods of stable magnetic activity coincide with dry periods. The fluctuations appear to impact on the earth's upper atmosphere, which, in turn, contributes to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - and a consistently positive SOL is linked to wetter years, a negative SOI indicates dry years. About half of the variations in the SOI can be attributed to the sun's magnetic rhythms.Prof Baker said the current stage of the cycle, since the last "flip" in 2001, meant that the eastern half of Australia could look forward to 18 months of heavy rain and then a 10-year "window" of average rainfalls. "The sun's magnetic field is now in a similar position to what it was in 1924 and 1925, when eastern Australia had particularly good rainfall," Prof Baker said. "If this tracking continues, we can expect average to heavy rainfall for eastern Australia within six months. "Then the wet cycle should continue into 2008." Prof Baker said sunspot activity was currently increasing as it normally did in this part of the sun's magnetic cycle, which has been an historic pointer to above-average rainfall.
While long-range weather prediction, using the sun or any other measure, was problematic, Prof Baker said his own theory pointed to 2009 as the next period of potential drought in Australia. In the longer term, an even worse drought could await the country in the 2020s. The most intense droughts tend to occur about a year after the sun flips its magnetic poles, every 22 years.
Prof Baker said his system of analysis simply complemented other methods of weather prediction and did not take into account the effects of carbon emissions on climate change. "If this coming cycle of predicted rainfall does not occur, it will be undeniable that carbon emissions are impacting on our climate in a very profound way," Prof Baker said. "In using this system, as opposed to other methods of long-range weather prediction, I'm trying to be as transparent as possible." "This is a very useful tool - this is the engine that drives the whole climate system."
But Prof Baker said even if his predictions were borne out and Australia received solid rainfall over the next 18 months, government and water consumers should not rest on their laurels. "We will simply have a 10-year window of opportunity to get our act together," he said. A paper on this research has been submitted to the journal Solar Terrestrial Physics.
SOURCE: AAP and FarmOnline
As a guide, current SOI is +1.4. Positive and staying there, even increasing slightly. The SOI is the Southern Oscillation Index commonly used as an indicator for predicting dry or wet conditions. See www.bom.gov.au for a lot more information.
Start of wetter cycle underway: new research
Australia Tuesday, 20 March 2007
The worst drought in a century could end this year, according to a scientist who has linked the cycle of sunspots and the "looping" of the sun's magnetic field to Australia's weather patterns. Associate Professor Robert Baker, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, says the rhythmic pattern in the sun's energy output strongly influences weather patterns. The rhythms apply especially in the southern Hemisphere and in eastern Australia under the influence of the huge size of the Pacific Ocean. The two key, related sun rhythms are:
• The sun's poles which switch every 11 years
• The sun's magnetic emissions which peak, every 11 years also, in periods of increased sunspot activity.
On earth, periods of high sun magnetic activity coincide with periods of high rainfall, according to Prof Baker's data, using records of observations made as far back as 1876. Periods of stable magnetic activity coincide with dry periods. The fluctuations appear to impact on the earth's upper atmosphere, which, in turn, contributes to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - and a consistently positive SOL is linked to wetter years, a negative SOI indicates dry years. About half of the variations in the SOI can be attributed to the sun's magnetic rhythms.Prof Baker said the current stage of the cycle, since the last "flip" in 2001, meant that the eastern half of Australia could look forward to 18 months of heavy rain and then a 10-year "window" of average rainfalls. "The sun's magnetic field is now in a similar position to what it was in 1924 and 1925, when eastern Australia had particularly good rainfall," Prof Baker said. "If this tracking continues, we can expect average to heavy rainfall for eastern Australia within six months. "Then the wet cycle should continue into 2008." Prof Baker said sunspot activity was currently increasing as it normally did in this part of the sun's magnetic cycle, which has been an historic pointer to above-average rainfall.
While long-range weather prediction, using the sun or any other measure, was problematic, Prof Baker said his own theory pointed to 2009 as the next period of potential drought in Australia. In the longer term, an even worse drought could await the country in the 2020s. The most intense droughts tend to occur about a year after the sun flips its magnetic poles, every 22 years.
Prof Baker said his system of analysis simply complemented other methods of weather prediction and did not take into account the effects of carbon emissions on climate change. "If this coming cycle of predicted rainfall does not occur, it will be undeniable that carbon emissions are impacting on our climate in a very profound way," Prof Baker said. "In using this system, as opposed to other methods of long-range weather prediction, I'm trying to be as transparent as possible." "This is a very useful tool - this is the engine that drives the whole climate system."
But Prof Baker said even if his predictions were borne out and Australia received solid rainfall over the next 18 months, government and water consumers should not rest on their laurels. "We will simply have a 10-year window of opportunity to get our act together," he said. A paper on this research has been submitted to the journal Solar Terrestrial Physics.
SOURCE: AAP and FarmOnline
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