Friday, June 26, 2015

No Early Rainy Season Onset for 2015

Can the new science of wet season onset help the cattle/ pastoral industry of north Australia?

It is actually not that new but has been refined to provide a regular update from late June through August, with a monthly update to be provided.

Early indications are for a later than normal onset of the wet season. the information to understand what it covers, which is basically enough rain to start pasture growth [ 50mm].

Quite a strong percentage showing a highly probable late start to the rainy season, or as shown - a low chance of early season rain.

More information here - and the infographic is an extract from today's post on the seasonal outlook.

The Bureau's new northern rainfall onset outlook provides guidance on rainfall timing within the first months of the Australian northern wet season.

The northern rainfall onset occurs when enough rain has fallen to stimulate plant growth after the dry season. This is defined as the date after 1 September when a location has received a total rainfall accumulation of at least 50 mm. The outlook is the percentage likelihood of the rainfall onset beginning earlier than normal.

The outlook will be updated monthly from June to August.
Low chance of early rainfall onset for much of northern Australia
  • Areas with a less than 40% chance of an early rainfall onset include northwestern Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory, Cape York Peninsula and parts of inland Queensland.
  • With El NiƱo conditions in the tropical Pacific, an earlier than normal onset is less likely.

Northern rainfall onset map
Map showing chance of observing early onset (%)
More information
Media liaison: 03 9669 4057

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